ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: As the COVID-19 pandemic strains healthcare systems worldwide, finding predictive markers of severe courses remains urgent. Most research so far was limited to selective questions hindering general assumptions for short- and long-term outcome. METHODS: In this prospective single-center biomarker study, 47 blood- and 21 bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) samples were collected from 47 COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) patients upon admission. Expression of inflammatory markers toll-like receptor 3 (TLR3), heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1), interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, leukocyte counts, procalcitonin (PCT) and carboxyhemoglobin (CO-Hb) was compared to clinical course. Clinical assessment comprised acute local organ damage, acute systemic damage, mortality and outcome after 6 months. RESULTS: PCT correlated with acute systemic damage and was the best predictor for quality of life (QoL) after 6 months (r = - 0.4647, p = 0.0338). Systemic TLR3 negatively correlated with impaired lung function (ECMO/ECLS: r = - 0.3810, p = 0.0107) and neurological short- (RASS mean: r = 0.4474, p = 0.0023) and long-term outcome (mRS after 6 m: r = - 0.3184, p = 0.0352). Systemic IL-8 correlated with impaired lung function (ECMO/ECLS: r = 0.3784, p = 0.0161) and neurological involvement (RASS mean: r = - 0.5132, p = 0.0007). IL-6 in BAL correlated better to the clinical course than systemic IL-6. Using three multivariate regression models, we describe prediction models for local and systemic damage as well as QoL. CO-Hb mean and max were associated with higher mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our predictive models using the combination of Charlson Comorbidity Index, sex, procalcitonin, systemic TLR3 expression and IL-6 and IL-8 in BAL were able to describe a broad range of clinically relevant outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19-associated ARDS. Using these models might proof useful in risk stratification and predicting disease course in the future. Trial registration The trial was registered with the German Clinical Trials Register (Trial-ID DRKS00021522, registered 22/04/2020).
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Respiratory Distress Syndrome , Humans , COVID-19/complications , Quality of Life , Toll-Like Receptor 3 , Interleukin-6 , Interleukin-8 , Procalcitonin , Prospective Studies , Pandemics , Inflammation , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/etiology , Disease ProgressionABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The pressures exerted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic pose an unprecedented demand on healthcare services. Hospitals become rapidly overwhelmed when patients requiring life-saving support outpace available capacities. OBJECTIVE: We describe methods used by a university hospital to forecast case loads and time to peak incidence. METHODS: We developed a set of models to forecast incidence among the hospital catchment population and to describe the COVID-19 patient hospital-care pathway. The first forecast utilized data from antecedent allopatric epidemics and parameterized the care-pathway model according to expert opinion (ie, the static model). Once sufficient local data were available, trends for the time-dependent effective reproduction number were fitted, and the care pathway was reparameterized using hazards for real patient admission, referrals, and discharge (ie, the dynamic model). RESULTS: The static model, deployed before the epidemic, exaggerated the bed occupancy for general wards (116 forecasted vs 66 observed), ICUs (47 forecasted vs 34 observed), and predicted the peak too late: general ward forecast April 9 and observed April 8 and ICU forecast April 19 and observed April 8. After April 5, the dynamic model could be run daily, and its precision improved with increasing availability of empirical local data. CONCLUSIONS: The models provided data-based guidance for the preparation and allocation of critical resources of a university hospital well in advance of the epidemic surge, despite overestimating the service demand. Overestimates should resolve when the population contact pattern before and during restrictions can be taken into account, but for now they may provide an acceptable safety margin for preparing during times of uncertainty.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Hospital Bed Capacity , Hospitals, University/organization & administration , COVID-19/prevention & control , Cross Infection/prevention & control , Forecasting , Germany/epidemiology , Hospitals, University/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Incidence , Models, Statistical , Patient SafetyABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: Renal replacement therapy in coronavirus disease 2019 patients is complicated by increased activation of the coagulation system. This may worsen the quality of hemodialysis and contribute to a shortage of dialysis machines as well as plastic disposables during the pandemic. This study describes a simple and safe protocol of anticoagulation with low-molecular-weight heparin in combination with bedside sustained low-efficiency hemodialysis in coronavirus disease 2019 patients. DESIGN: Monocentric observational cross-over trial investigating sustained low-efficiency hemodialysis with unfractionated heparin following sustained low-efficiency hemodialysis with low-molecular-weight heparin. SETTING: Coronavirus disease 2019-ICU in a German Tertiary Care University Hospital. PATIENTS: Three consecutive severe coronavirus disease 2019 patients receiving nine sustained low-efficiency hemodialysis therapies with unfractionated heparin followed by 18 sustained low-efficiency hemodialysis therapies with low-molecular-weight heparin. INTERVENTIONS: Switch from IV unfractionated heparin to subcutaneous low-molecular-weight heparin enoxaparin in therapeutic doses for patients receiving bedside sustained low-efficiency hemodialysis. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Nine renal replacement therapy sessions in patients anticoagulated with high doses of unfractionated heparin had to be discontinuated prematurely because of clotting of tubes or membrane and poor quality of hemodialysis. In the same patients, the switch to anticoagulation with therapeutic doses of the low-molecular-weight heparin enoxaparin allowed undisturbed bedside sustained low-efficiency hemodialysis for at least 12 hours. Quality of hemodialysis was excellent, no bleeding event was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Systemic anticoagulation with subcutaneous enoxaparin provides an effective and safe renal replacement procedure in critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 and hypercoagulability. The protocol reduces the risk of filter clotting, blood loss, and poor dialysis quality and may also prevent systemic thromboembolism.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The new pandemic coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 causing coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) poses immense challenges to health care systems worldwide. In the current manuscript we summarize the strategies, organisational approaches and actions of the Task-force Coronavirus at the University Medical Center Freiburg. We also report on experiences with implementation of these approaches and treatment outcomes in the first 115 COVID patients. METHODS: Retrospective, narrative process description and analysis of the time period between end of January and beginning of April 2020, performed by representatives of the involved departments and institutes. Additionally a retrospective observational cohort study with descriptive analysis of epidemiological and clinical data of COVID patients admitted until March 31st was performed. RESULTS: A multidisciplinary Task-force Coronavirus initiated measures concerning outpatient testing and counseling, reorganisation and separation of patient flow processes alongside with substantial escalation of inpatient capacities on regular wards and intensive care units. Within the framework of the resulting dynamic care model, 115 patients suffering from COVID could be treated without shortages in staff or bed capacities. DICUSSION: In the upcoming pandemic, adequate COVID management and care could be secured by a collaborative approach with inclusion of administrative departments, clinical disciplines and theoretical institutes of the University Medical Center Freiburg.